Moore’s Law and the Cost of Solar Energy

May 26th, 2008 · No Comments · solar cost

Moore’s law describes how more transistors can be placed on a circuit each year. In fact, this number has been doubling each year.
This explains why computers keep getting smaller, cheaper and more powerful. And this trend has been going on for nearly 50 years. This law of technical improvement may apply to solar energy as well.
Although solar energy can be economically viable when it’s subsidised by government rebates, it has yet to really break into the mainstream. This is mainly because of its cost. However, by looking at the rate of price decrease, it’s possible solar will be very competitive by 2015.

clipped from www.fanboy.com

Photovoltaic Moore’s Law Will Make Solar Competitive by 2015

“In recent years, global PV production has been increasing at a rate of 50 percent per year, so that accumulated global capacity doubles about every 18 months. The PV Moore’s law states that with every doubling of capacity, PV costs come down by 20 percent. In 2004, installing PV cost about $7 per watt, compared to $1/W for wind, which at that time was beginning to stand on its own feet commercially, Last, year, as recently noted in this blog, average global solar costs had come down to between $4 and $5 per watt, right in line with the PV Moore’s law. Extrapolate those gains out six or seven years, and PV costs will be below $2/W, making photovolatics competitive with 2004 wind.”

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